OK time to man up and make my projections for Sunday’s Oscars.  So let’s take it from the top.

Best Film

Will Win, Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Thoughts - Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have second guessed this at all.  The Hurt Locker had been running away with all of the awards that matter.  (Yep, I just went there…the Globes don’t matter.  Get used to it.)  But all this backlash has made me nervous.  Still, this battle is for the soul of the AMPAS, and no I’m not talking about the East coast elitist love for The Hurt Locker vs the Hollywood/California establishment love for Cameron.  I’m talking Commercial vs. Critical.  To date Avatar has grossed roughly $710 million domestically.  The Hurt Locker has grossed just under $13 million.  Let me put that disparity in perspective for you: Avatar has 23 individual days that grossed more than The Hurt Locker did during its entire run.  The Hurt Locker never in a single day grossed a million dollars.  Avatar has yet to have a day less than a million dollars.  In the past 30 years, the lowest gross by a film to win Best Picture was 1987’s The Last Emporer with just under $44 million dollars.  So as you can see, we are really talking polar opposites here.  And yet, I’ve got to think that Avatar just doesn’t have enough going for it.  No writing nominations, no acting nominations.  I think the only film to ever win without a writing nomination was Titanic, so it can be done.  But without either?  My money says unlikely.  The Hurt Locker it is.  (Side note:  Don’t put any credence to the Inglourious Basterds rumors.  Not gonna happen.)

Best Director

Will Win, Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Thoughts - Should be a lock.  Even her top competition, Avatar-director James Cameron (purposely not mentioning the whole ex-husband thing) (and that doesn’t count) thinks she should win.  In a year that featured great direction by other female directors (Bright Star comes to mind), Bigelow takes home the first award for a female.  On a side note (I promise there will be less of these as we get further into this), I think Cameron deserves this award more than Avatar deserves best film.  My logic: Cameron did everything for that film, beginning with developing the damn technology that allowed it to exist.  The unprecedented vision was his, and without his complete control and direction over the project, it never would have happened.  How many other films can you say that about?  Tarantino with Inglourious Basterds maybe.  Without Bigelow, The Hurt Locker would have been a different film, sure, but subject matter, writing and performances would have been just as weighty.  That being said, Bigelow wins this (and hopefully mentions Point Break in her acceptance speech).

Best Actor

Will Win, Should Win: Jeff Bridges

Thoughts - He’s won every award leading up to the Oscars so there really is only one thing to say: “It’s about time.”

Best Actress

Will Win: Sandra Bullock

Should Win: Carey Mulligan

Thoughts - What’s that I hear?  An actual race?  Sadly, I don’t think Carey is actually involved in that race.  This one is between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep.  The Academy loves Meryl, and she hasn’t won in a ton of years.  But Sandra’s film was better (and actually received other nominations).  Additionally, Sandra actually acted.  What’s that you say?  What was Meryl doing then?  Mimicking.  I think my biggest Oscar peeve is when actors and actresses win for bio-pics of such notable and recognizable characters.  They aren’t creating a character, they are just finding ways to mimic ticks and quirks.  It kills me.  Before I move on, I need to spend a moment on Carey Mulligan.  What a performance.  Really. God I’m excited for her career.  She did something that I really can’t often remember happening in a film: she outshone Peter Sarsgaard.  I promise when we look back in 10 years, and Carey is an established actress on this side of the pond, we’ll all wonder how she didn’t win.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win, Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Thoughts - As open and shut as an award has ever been.  I did love Woody Harrelson’s performance thought.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Mo’Nique

Should Win: Anna Kendrick

Thoughts - Oh come on, you don’t think I actually think Anna has a shot do you?  Mo’Nique has this in the bag.  I just really liked Anna’s performance (and movie) a lot better than Mo’Nique’s. That being said, Mo’Nique is gold.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Tarantino “Inglourious Basterds”

Should Win: Scott Neustadter & Michael Weber “(500) Days of Summer”

Thoughts - Ok, I cheated.  (500) wasn’t even nominated.  But it should have been.  And it should have won.  Anyway, the real competition is between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds.  This one really has me confused too.  For audacity, and one of the best historical re-writes ever, not to mention his involvement with Weinstein, I think Tarantino eeks it out over The Hurt Locker.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner “Up in the Air”

Should Win: Up in the Air

Thoughts - Never thought I’d say this, but I think this film comes out of the year being under-rated.  Smart, incisive script.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: El Secreto de Sus Ojos

Should Win: Un Prophete

Thoughts - Only saw White Ribbon.  Very good film.  Received amazing reviews.  Every one seems to love it.  However, Un Prophete and El Secreto de Sus Ojos have received a lot of buzz lately.  And I never pick Foreign Language film right.  (How did Waltz with Bashir NOT win last year?) So I’m putting something else down as the winner.  My buddy in Spain loved Un Prophete, and despite his wretched taste, I’m putting it down as my Should Win to appease him.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win, Should Win: The Cove

Thoughts - Not going to pretend I saw all of these, but Oscar voters love a good cause and this one takes the cake.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win, Should Win: Up

Thoughts - Strongest year for Animated Feature ever.  All the nominees are deserving of a victory in a normal year.  But Up successfully transitioned beyond animated feature to actual film. Don’t bet against Pixar.

Best Art Direction

Will Win, Should Win: Avatar

Thoughts - And Avatar starts to show why it was so succesful.

Best Cinematography

Will win: Avatar

Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Thoughts - This is a toss-up, but I think Avatar takes it.  I preferred The Hurt Locker’s steady-cam bomb sequences enough that I’d like to see it take the award.

Costume Design

Will Win, Should Win: The Young Victoria

Thoughts - Who doesn’t love a Victorian-era period piece for costumes?

Film Editing

Will Win, Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Thoughts - Another toss-up between The Hurt Locker and Avatar.  That being said, I’m not sure Cameron actually knows what editing is.  (Yes, I realize he’s not the only editor, but damn that film was long).

Musical Score

Will Win, Should Win: Michael Giacchino “Up”

Thoughts - I posted it the other day, but this score can tell a story (and bring me to tears).

Original Song

Will Win, Should Win: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart

Thoughts - Sure wish Karen O had gotten her nomination.

Sound Editing

Will Win, Should Win: Avatar

Thoughts - Not even close

Best Make-Up

Will Win, Should Win: Star Trek

Thoughts - Aliens beat out Victorians

Sound Mixing

Will Win, Should Win: Avatar

Thoughts - Wouldn’t be surprised to see Hurt Locker win this, but Avatar is technical perfection

Visual Effects

Will Win, Should Win - Avatar

Thoughts - Oh, come on!

Best Animated Short

Will Win - A Matter of Loaf and Death

Should Win - Logorama

Thoughts - AMPAS loves Wallace & Grommit (4 win in 5 nominations and the only loss was to himself).  I, however, do not.  Logorama was dark, hilarious and original as hell.  Definitely check it out.  I also really liked The Lady and The Reaper.  Sweet in a macabre sort of way.

Best Documentary Short

Will Win, Should Win - The Last Truck: Closing of GM Plant

Thoughts - Actually caught this one on HBO…so I guess I kinda have to pick it?  Also, subject matter is too timely to lose. (Well, unless you’re name is Up in the Air).

Best Live Action Short

Will Win - The Door

Should Win - TBD

Thoughts - Have heard the most “buzz” on The Door, so I’m going with that.  Reserving the right to switch my pick after seeing all of these on Saturday.